In January, PMI Of Manufacturing Industry Stood Firm, And The High-Tech Manufacturing Industry Expanded Rapidly.

In January, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50%, a slight drop of 0.2 percentage points from last month, and it is still standing on the line. In the five sub indices of manufacturing PMI, the new order index reflecting market demand changes is 51.4%, and it is expanding for three consecutive months. From the industry perspective, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry is 52.9%, and the pace of expansion continues to accelerate. The purchasing managers index surveyed the time point as of January 20, 2020.

According to the classification index, the production index and the new order index are higher than the critical point in the five classification indices of manufacturing PMI. Raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index are below the critical point. Among them, the production index is 51.3%, down 1.9 percentage points from last month, indicating that the pace of manufacturing expansion has slowed down. The new order index was 51.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continued to grow.

From the scale of enterprises, the prosperity of large and medium-sized enterprises has been expanded, and small businesses have improved. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was 50.4% and 50.1%, respectively, 0.2 and 1.3 percentage points lower than that of last month, but it still maintained expansion. PMI of small enterprises was 48.6%, up 1.4 percentage points from last month.

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, said demand expansion is accelerating and production growth is slowing down. The new order index reflecting market demand changes was 51.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and three consecutive months in the expansion area. The production index is 51.3%, down 1.9 percentage points from last month.

In addition, the new and old kinetic energy continues to transform and the high-tech industry leads the development. "From key industries, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries is 52.9%, 50.7% and 50.5%, respectively, which are higher than the total 2.9, 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points of manufacturing industry respectively. Among them, the expansion of high-tech manufacturing industry has been accelerating since September 2019, and the PMI of high energy consuming industries is 49%, which continues to be in the contraction zone." Zhao Qinghe said.

However, the purchasing price index of raw materials increased significantly, and the factory price index dropped slightly. Affected by price fluctuations such as crude oil and other commodities in recent years, the purchasing price index of major raw materials has risen to 53.8%, the highest point since November 2018, of which oil processing, steel and other industries are located at a high level of more than 60%, and the purchasing cost of related enterprises has increased. Ex factory price index was 49%, down 0.2 percentage points from last month, and continued to be in the contraction zone.

Zhao Qinghe also pointed out that the impact of the new coronavirus infection on pneumonia has not yet been fully revealed in the survey, and the latter trend needs further observation during the survey period before January 20th.

Li Chao, chief macro researcher of Huatai Securities, said that the PMI index remained on the withered line in January, continuing the good performance since November 2019, and the economy has stabilized to a good signal. The outbreak of new coronavirus infection during the Spring Festival broke out. In January, PMI was less affected by epidemic factors. He also pointed out that the driving force for economic recovery is likely to be affected by stages. It is expected that the intensity of countercyclical policy adjustment will be further enhanced during the epidemic prevention and control period.